India's GDP growth will slow down to 5.5 per cent in FY24 from the 6.9 per cent expected in the current fiscal 2022-23, a Swiss brokerage said on Wednesday. The slowdown was attributed to slowing global growth and tightening of monetary policies in the report by economists at UBS India. It said India will be among the "lesser affected economies" in the world, but made it clear that the world's fifth largest economy is not immune from global headwinds.
The country's largest home loan player, Housing Development Finance Corporation, said on Thursday it will not hike interest rates even if the central bank signals an upward movement in the monetary policy on July 27.
The Reserve Bank of India has postponed the meeting of its interest rate setting Monetary Policy Committee by a day to August 3 due to administrative exigencies. The RBI said the decision of the MPC will be known on August 5 as against the earlier schedule of August 4. "Due to administrative exigencies, it has been decided to reschedule the MPC meeting from August 2-4, 2022 to August 3-5, 2022," RBI said in a statement on Thursday.
The Planning Commission on Tuesday said the Reserve Bank's decision to tighten the money supply will not have any impact on growth and the economy would do better than 8 per cent expansion rate projected by the central bank.
Investment trend by foreign investors will also be closely watched for stock movement
Is unhappy about banks' reluctance to pass on lower interest rates.
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Raghuram Rajan, who took over as RBI Governor on September 4, is scheduled to unveil on Friday mid-quarter monetary policy review, an event keenly awaited by industry and banks.
Rupee ends flat against dollar ahead of Fed policy outcome.
Recent slide in inflation no consolation amid exceptional shrinkage in industrial growth.
The Reserve Bank of India is unlikely to change the policy rates the repo and reverse repo rates in its mid-term review of the monetary policy amid persistent inflationary expectations following copious foreign capital inflows. Headline inflation has dropped significantly below RBI's target of 5 per cent for 2007-08 but this is a result of the government deciding not to pass on the increase in oil prices to consumers.
The Reserve Bank of India's tight monetary policy is expected to moderate India's economic growth rate to 8.1-8.6 per cent in 2008, against 8.5-9 per cent in 2007, Global rating agency Standard and Poor's said on Wednesday.
Industry is demanding a cut in repo rate to help revive India's sagging GDP growth that hit decade's low of 4.5 per cent in the third quarter of 2012-13.
The wholesale price-based inflation declined to a 21-month low of 5.85 per cent in November on easing prices of food, fuel and manufactured items. After remaining in double digits for 19 months, the wholesale price index (WPI) based inflation declined to 8.39 per cent in October. The inflation was 14.87 per cent in November 2021. "Decline in the rate of inflation in November 2022, is primarily contributed by fall in prices of food articles, basic metals, textiles, chemicals & chemical products and paper & paper products as compared to the corresponding month of the previous year," the commerce and industry ministry said on Wednesday.
Less-than-expected rainfall and a poor spatial distribution, experts say, can rekindle fears of a rise in food and fuel inflation that can have an impact on the RBI's monetary policy. The fear of less than optimal rainfall due to El Nino this year, analysts believe, is the biggest short-term risk for the markets, which they said has not been fully priced in yet by them. Monsoon set over Kerala on June 08, a week later than its scheduled date.
The index could be vulnerable to a bigger fall given the present market dynamics.
Wholesale price-based inflation remained in the negative territory for the fifth straight month in August at (-)0.52 per cent, but prices of food articles and fuel showed an uptick. The wholesale price index (WPI) based inflation rate has been in the negative since April and was (-)1.36 per cent in July. In August last year it was 12.48 per cent. Inflation in food articles remained in double digit at 10.60 per cent in August, lower than 14.25 per cent in July.
The Indian economy is expected to be "a little weaker" in 2025 despite steady global growth, IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva has said. Georgieva also said she expects quite a lot of uncertainty in the world this year mainly around the trade policy of the US. In her annual media roundtable with a group of reporters on Friday, she said global growth is expected to be steady in 2025, but with regional divergence.
Of the 15 participants, 7 expect CRR cut, only one sees repo rate reduction.
Warning that the new year will be riskier than the previous two in terms of growth, inflation and the perils of monetary policy normalisation on consumption demand in particular, along with other external risks, a Wall Street brokerage has pencilled in an 8.2 per cent GDP growth next fiscal, with more downside risks to the projection. The biggest risk to the projection is a derailed consumption demand that has been the main growth driver in the past many years, said the Bank of America Securities India house economists who still believe that consumption demand will remain the key driver of growth next fiscal as well.
'Even now, investors are not bothered about the war but are more concerned whether it will remain localised or not.' 'In case things are contained, markets can stage a bounce back in the next few days.'
The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) record surplus transfer to the government has raised hopes among bond traders that the government might reduce its gross borrowing for the current financial year (2024-25/FY25) by up to Rs 1 trillion. The RBI approved a dividend of Rs 2.11 trillion for the central government for 2023-24, marking an increase of roughly 141 per cent from 2022-23 (FY23). In addition, the contingency risk buffer has been raised to 6.5 per cent from the previous 6 per cent.
In the mid-year monetary policy review on Tuesday, RBI, left the key interest rate unchanged but reduced cash reserve ratio by 0.25 per cent to infuse additional liquidity of up to Rs 17,500 crore (Rs 175 billion) into the system.
The Congress party in India has accused the government of "impropriety" in the sudden termination of KV Subramanian's position as India's executive director at the IMF, alleging it was linked to the Union Bank of India's purchase of two lakh copies of his book. The party also questioned the government's stance on Pakistan's request for a loan from the IMF.
Central bank may raise the limit on repo borrowings or purchase more of govt bonds.
'The actions of Indian monetary authorities will depend on how quickly they want the inflation to come down to 4 per cent.'
Allocation to bank deposits -- fixed deposits, savings account deposits, and current account deposits -- came down.
Describing the recent two consecutive spikes in retail inflation beyond the 6 per cent as a 'transitory hump', a Wall Street brokerage on Monday said it expects the RBI to overlook it and unanimously stick to the dovish stance at the forthcoming policy review, even though a further upward revision of its already-revised inflation target is more likely. The Reserve Bank-led monetary policy panel is scheduled to announce the third monetary policy review on August 6, amidst the continuing spike in retail inflation that has breached the 6 per cent upper tolerance level for the past two consecutive months.
The RBI said there is an upward bias on inflation projection.
The next policy meeting will be in mid-June, when the panel will be joined by Stanley Fischer, the former Bank of Israel governor whose nomination to the Fed's board was confirmed on Wednesday by the US Senate.
RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das on Wednesday defended the Reserve Bank's handling of the price situation, saying acting prematurely on inflation would have exerted a heavy cost on the economy and citizens. Acknowledging that the inflation target has been missed, Das said the RBI decided to support the economy by not introducing a rate hike in face of a spike in inflation. "We prevented a 'complete collapse of the economy' by keeping rates lower and stayed away from premature tightening," Das said speaking at the annual FIBAC conference of bankers in Mumbai.
The broader NSE Nifty too slipped by 9.50 points, or 0.09 per cent, to end at 10,118.25
Kotak Mahindra Bank was the biggest loser in the Sensex pack, sliding 2.68 per cent, followed by Tech Mahindra, Mahindra & Mahindra, Axis Bank, Hindustan Unilever, Tata Motors, Tata Consultancy Services, Bajaj Finserv, Bajaj Finance, Nestle and Titan. In contrast, NTPC, Power Grid, Larsen & Toubro, HDFC, Reliance and HDFC Bank were the gainers.
India's prices are rising faster than many of its emerging market peers. The country's inflation print for May at 4.25 per cent is a marked reduction from the levels seen in May 2022 (7.04 per cent). However, even though the inflation rate remains within the Reserve Bank of India's medium-term target of 4 per cent, with a 2 per cent margin on either side, it continues to be higher than China, Russia, and Brazil.
The finance ministry has cautioned that global and regional uncertainties and domestic disruptions may keep inflationary pressures elevated in the coming months, warranting "greater vigilance" by the government and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). "Russia's decision to terminate the Black Sea grain deal, along with dry conditions in major wheat-growing areas, caused a price spike in cereals. Domestic factors like white fly disease and an uneven distribution of monsoon exerted pressure on vegetable prices in India," the ministry said in its latest Monthly Economic Report for July, released on Tuesday. However, the report maintained, the recent price surge in certain food items "is expected to be transitory". "Tomato prices are likely to decline with the arrival of fresh stocks by the end of August or early September.
The Reserve Bank of India on Friday decided to keep benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4 per cent but maintained an accommodative stance even as the economy is showing signs of recovery after the second Covid wave.
The Reserve Bank is likely to maintain status-quo on the key interest rates for the third time in a row in its upcoming bi-monthly policy review despite the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank hiking benchmark rates, as domestic inflation is within the RBI's comfort zone, say experts. The borrowing cost which started rising in May last year has stabilised with RBI keeping the repo rate unchanged at 6.5 per cent since February when it was raised from 6.25 per cent. In the previous two bi-monthly policy reviews in April and June the benchmark rate was retained.
Wholesale inflation rate declined marginally to 0.2 per cent in February compared to 0.27 per cent in the preceding month despite a slight uptick in the food basket. The Wholesale Price Index (WPI)-based inflation was in the negative zone from April to October and had turned positive in November at 0.26 per cent. The inflation in February 2023 was 3.85 per cent.
After subdued earnings in the first half amid global headwinds, India Inc is taking a cautious approach on their capital expenditure (capex) for the second half of the financial year ending March 2025, according to management commentary. Minutes from the October monetary policy meeting show the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) optimism about private investments picking up.
As COVID-19 infections spike in the country resulting in restrictions in various states and impacting the fragile recovery, many economists are expecting RBI to delay the policy normalisation move, which is expected in the February review. The country has reported a single-day rise of 58,097 new Covid-19 cases as of Wednesday morning--the highest in around 199 days -- of which 2,135 are Omicron cases and later in the day, the first confirmed Omicron-related death has also been reported. Maharashtra recorded the maximum number of 653 Omicron cases followed by Delhi at 464, Kerala 185, Rajasthan 174, Gujarat 154 and Tamil Nadu 121 cases, taking the total tally of cases to 3,50,18,358.
Retail inflation rose to three-month high of 4.81 per cent in June, mainly on account of hardening prices of food, according to the government data. Inflation based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) stood at 4.31 per per (revised upward from 4.25 per cent) in May and 7 per cent in June 2022. The inflation, however, remains within the RBI's comfort level of below 6 per cent.
